Adam Smith, the famous economist, remarked that, in a free market, an individual pursuing self-interest also tends to promote the good of the society. He called this principle "the invisible hand." However, Smith's commentary does not hold true for "the commons"—resources such as air, land, water and other natural resources that are shared by multiple groups or nations.
Tragedy of the commons. Garrett Hardin, another economist, recognized the conflict over shared resources and put forth the discussion in a paper entitled, "The Tragedy of the Commons."1 Hardin explained the tragedy by using a pasture as the "common" shared by herdsmen. To raise income, each herdsman has an incentive to increase the number of animals within their herd. Unfortunately, a herdsman will probably ignore the fact that the pasture will become home to more animals than the land can support, thus leading to disastrous results. While Hardin's "tragedy" is an interesting philosophical response to Smith's "invisible hand," several dynamics and practical implications of Hardin's view should be considered.
Cycle for tragedy. I suggest that it is most appropriate to view Hardin's model as a cyclic phenomenon. When cattle are first introduced into the pasture, there is initially a period of "plenty" where the cattle thrive, the herdsmen's fortunes increase and each herdsman adds more cattle to their herd. However, the cattle population exceeds the sustainability of the pasture—"the disaster point." At this point, some cattle will die of starvation. The system has entered a "tragedy" period. A natural equilibrium can follow the tragedy. Eventually, the number of surviving cattle is reduced to a level that can again be sustained by the pasture—"the recovery point." Hopefully, the herdsmen have learned the lesson.
From this cyclical view, obviously the tragedy is unavoidable. While one may believe that planting the pasture with a more prolific and nutritious species of grass is a reasonable policy. However, the effect simply lengthens the cycle and delays entry into the tragedy phase. Similarly, a sudden invasion of grass-eating rabbits could shorten the time to system failure.
This cyclical phenomenon appears repeatedly in issues such as world energy, climate change, atmospheric pollution and water rights. Like Hardin's hypothetical, the tragedy of the commons is a problem of population growth with limited resources. In global issues, the question to consider is not how to avoid the tragedy, but how to minimize the repercussions from it.
Energy. Let's look at energy policy issues. Today, almost 85% of global energy consumption is based on fossil fuels—oil, gas and coal. Experts note that oil production has likely peaked and that competition for this resource "common" is increasing due to explosive economic growth in Asia and elsewhere. For plan-
ning purposes, the petroleum common will be depleted within a few decades. The challenge for the US and other nations is how best to phase in alternative energy sources to continue economic growth (financial common) and to minimize the adverse impacts from the depletion of world's petroleum reserves.
For example, a significant decrease in per capita energy use (energy conservation) could lengthen the time to the disaster point for the petroleum cycle (in spite of population growth) and to provide more time to implement comprehensive energy programs. Similarly, increasing exploration for new deposits of crude oil and natural gas, as well as introducing new technologies for enhanced recovery, could give a reprieve. However, at some point, petroleum reserves will be depleted and will no longer be available to drive economic growth.
TBn© future. What will be the strategic energy mix in the US in 50 years? In 100 years? Based on what we currently know, it is clear that there isn't an alternate energy source that will replace fossil fuels and associated infrastructure in the near term. However, the quest for a solution must be systematic. A policy maker supporting pursuit of all potential solutions or diversification of energy sources will undermine the future due to a lack of specific direction—one cannot lay a wager on every available technology and expect extraordinary results.
The energy policy should be sophisticated enough to recognize the depletion of the commons and to invest in technologies, research and associated infrastructure in a staggered and planned manner. For example, besides fuel, crude oil is used to produce thousands of petrochemical products that are consumed daily. Have we planned for an alternate feedstock for these products, in case of depleting petroleum reserves? In the short-term, we may have to accept damage to other commons, such as air and water, in favor of meeting energy demands; however, by having an integrated energy-environment policy that accounts for depleting resources, we can help diminish the tragedy and its associated consequences.
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